Amazon’sLord of the Ringsis an ambitious project with a big budget to support it, but no matter how good it ends up being, it won’t have the same cultural impact as the movies did. The best Amazon can hope for is moderate, but sustained success and an audience thatwill stick with the showand talk about it.
The reasons for this are numerous. TheLord of the Ringsmovies were a surprise to audiences when they came out: far-reaching, well-thought-out adaptations with a great production value anda dedicated, talented cast. And yet, they were also made by a fan, and fans alike recognized the care put into bringing a trilogy many had said was too complicated to life. Visually, the movies spared no expense, leaving fans feeling likethey’d stepped into Middle-Earth, but more importantly, the movies kept a lot of the backstory, the characters, and even some of the songs from the book. The movies just weren’t an abridged version ofLord of the Rings; they were long, complicated, and yet also much easier to understand than the books.
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It was one of the main feats of the movies and one of the reasons for its success. TheLord of the Ringsmoviesdidn’t dumb down the trilogyfor the audience, and yet they somehow did a really good job ofbringing new fans into the storythey were telling. This puts the new Amazon series in a very difficult place as a follow-up. Even if the Amazon project ends up feeling the same, that’s not the expectation, so the show must do even more than the movies had to in order to stand out. It’s always easier to follow a disappointing movie than a universally beloved one.
This isn’t the only issue. Amazon’s Lord of the Rings adaptations also has to stand out in an entertainment landscape that’s more wary of adaptations than it was twenty years ago. The next big fantasy hit afterLord of the Rings–Game of Thrones– was a mega success for HBO, breaking records year after year. After a disappointing ending, however, fans might be a little more cautious when it comes to trusting the next big project.
One thing working in this show’s favor? The AmazonLord of the Ringsproject won’t feature the characters people have come to know and love, and will instead take place in Tolkien’s Second Age, thousands of years before the events ofThe Hobbitand themainLord of the Ringstrilogy. That still doesn’t mean the expectations placed on the show – especially considering thehefty 450$ million price tagfor the first season – won’t be larger than most shows of its kind.
Timing is another issue that might make or break this show. TheLord of the Ringsmovies had very little competition in the way of fantasy adaptations. The same thing could be said ofGame of Thrones, which debuted when fantasy wasn’t as popular – at least not translated to TV – and became a surprise hit. But everyone has wised up to the fantasy genre now, and more and more streamers are betting on the next big fantasy hit. So,Amazon’sLord of the Ringswill have a lot of competition when it finally makes it to air.
HBO hasThe Nevers, and presumably a great manyGame of Thronesspinoffs which could possibly see the light of day around the same time as the first season of Amazon’s Lord of the Rings series. Netflix is betting big on fantasy, with not justThe Witcherbut the YA adaptationShadow and Bone, but alsoThe Irregulars, different kinds of fantasy adaptations, but still occupying more or less the same space in people’s minds. Even Apple TV+’s forthcomingFoundationcould be seen as competition.
All of this leaves the newLord of the Ringsshowin a bit of a weird place. Yes, there’s a lot of anticipation for it, and clearly, Amazon believes in the story they’ve got enough to throw a lot of money behind the show. But what does success mean when the expectations are already so high to begin with? How does one compare to a movie trilogy that marked a before and after in the way people think of fantasy adaptations? There’s no way to, and that means that no matter what the Amazon project does, it likely won’t be able to live up to the expectations placed on it.
Not that it should have to. Fans will be happy with an entertaining show that goes deeper into Tolkien’s lore than the movies had a chance to. The question is, of course, will Amazon be content with a possible moderate success or isGame of Thronesthe bar they, themselves, are going to hold thisLord of the Ringsadaptation to? The answer to this question might determine the future of the show, and what fans ultimately get.
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